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StingyInvestor.com |
Current Stats
Average Capital Gain
31.2%
Average Holding Period
2.5 Yrs
03/31/2001 to 06/30/2010
31.2%
Average Holding Period
2.5 Yrs
03/31/2001 to 06/30/2010
Nine Years in Review (Q1 2010)
(The stats below cover the 03/31/2001 to 03/31/2010 period.)
This is the ninth anniversary edition of the Rothery Report and, even after suffering from the biggest bear market since 1929, I remain quite pleased with our long-term track record. Over the last nine years we've uncovered some very profitable situations and I hope you don't mind taking a little walk down memory lane.
Our best performer, so far, has been Books-A-Million which provided capital gains of 606%. Add in dividends and we nabbed a total return of 626% by the time we sold the firm in the summer of 2006. Our second best gainer was Service which generated a capital gain of 462% by the time it was sold at the end of 2007. Add in dividends and Service provided a total return of 474%. Third place goes to Indigo Books & Music, a current holding, which is up 321% so far. Algoma Central nabbed fourth place after being sold in late 2006 for an average capital gain of 263% and an average total return of 279%. Following behind, Lone Star picked up a capital gain of 221% and Apple Computer netted us returns of 213%. Alas, we would have fared even better on Apple if we had held on longer.
| Top Rothery Report Capital Gainers | |||
| Company | Capital Gain | Years Held | Annualized Gain |
| Books-A-Million | 606% | 3.5 | 76% |
| Service | 462% | 5.4 | 37% |
| Indigo | 321% | 7.5 | 21% |
| Algoma Central | 263% | 4.3 | 35% |
| Lone Star Tech | 221% | 3.3 | 43% |
| Apple Computer | 213% | 2.2 | 67% |
| Toys 'R' Us | 158% | 1.7 | 76% |
| John B Sanfilippo | 149% | 0.8 | 210% |
| Circuit City | 148% | 2.7 | 41% |
| MDC | 123% | 2.1 | 45% |
| ATCO | 120% | 6.1 | 14% |
| Stewart | 117% | 1.3 | 77% |
| Precision Castparts | 110% | 1.0 | 110% |
| Altria | 107% | 6.8 | 11% |
| eBay | 105% | 1.0 | 105% |
Below the 200% level, the next four winners were sold some time ago but they enjoyed healthy profits nonetheless. Toys 'R' Us climbed 158%, John B. Sanfilippo & Sons gained 149%, Circuit City returned 148%, and M.D.C. moved 123% higher. New to the winners parade this year are ATCO with a 120% gain, Stewart with a 117% advance, and Precision Castparts with a 110% return. Following close behind, Altria chalked up a capital gain of 107% not including its hefty dividend yield which exceeded 8% at times. Rounding out the list, eBay squeaked into the 'over 100%' club with a 105% gain.
Greatest hits are one thing, but how do we stack up overall? The average Rothery Report stock has provided capital gains of 37.3% since first being suggested and we've held our stocks for 2.47 years on average. Based on those two numbers, our annualized average capital gain comes in at 13.7%. But this figure does not include dividends which would boost our total returns by several percentage points. Currently the average dividend yield on our portfolio is 1.6% which is a little depressed from past levels.
By way of comparison, over the last nine years the average annual return of the S&P500 (as represented by the SPY exchange traded fund) was only 1.7% and the S&P/TSX Composite (as represented by the XIC exchange traded fund) climbed only 10.1% a year. Mind you, both of these figures include dividends.
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